Moonshot AI is in talks for its final round of funding before an IPO, targeting a valuation of $50B and planning to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange by year-end. According to reports from Bloomberg and TechNode (July 21-23, 2026), the current round is expected to raise about $31.5B. Just half a year ago, the company was valued at about $10B. The Kimi K3 released in July pushed the valuation up to its current level, and according to reports, its ARR increased from $200M in April to $300M in June.
First, a judgment: the $50B valuation is not in the same league, and it's choosing the worst time to go public.
First, the price is high. Based on the $300M ARR in June, the $50B valuation corresponds to about 167 times. The valuations of US-based Anthropic and OpenAI in the primary market are also high, but their revenues have already reached hundreds of billions of dollars, with multiples of only 20 times or so (according to StartupHub). Moonshot AI's multiple is six to eight times that of them, and it's supported by the assumption that its growth rate will remain this high. However, this assumption is not stable: according to public rankings, the comprehensive capabilities of Kimi K3 still lag behind the latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI, and it only outperforms their previous generations in coding and agents. According to SVTR's AI venture database, the funding has almost entirely come from Alibaba and Tencent, with the two companies investing in every round since the A round in 2024. The company is led by Yang Zhilin, who has a background from Tsinghua University and Carnegie Mellon University and previously worked at Cyclical Intelligence.
Now, the timing. The competitors Zhipu and MiniMax have already listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange this year, and the first unlock in July revealed the truth: MiniMax's valuation dropped by 80% from a peak of $52B to about $9B, and Zhipu also saw a significant drop from a high of HK$1 trillion (according to SCMP and Sina Finance). The primary market is supported by Alibaba and Tencent, but after going public, when the cornerstone investors loosen their grip, what will support the $50B valuation? MiniMax has already shown the way. Moonshot AI is now entering a market that is collectively devaluing large models.
Three things to watch next
First, whether this round can be closed at $50B and who will lead the round. If it's only Alibaba and Tencent themselves that take the investment, and no new long-term capital from outside comes in, it will indicate that the market does not actually accept this price.
Second, whether the revenue of Kimi K3 can continue to grow. If the ARR slows down in September, the 167 times valuation will immediately look expensive.
Third, the Hong Kong stock exchange price and the first unlock. Whether it can reach $50B, and whether the cornerstone investors will leave half a year later, MiniMax and Zhipu have already shown the preview.
This article is a first-hand judgment from SVTR Radar on a major event, complementing the weekly market observations.